Outbreaks under the baseline scenario (top) and a scenario with no interventions (bottom).

Left: Distributions of cumulative infections over the 70-day training period across 1,000 replicate simulations. Right: The functional boxplot shows the median estimate (black line), 50% central region (25–75%) (blue band), 1.5 times central region (blue lines), and outliers defined as lines outside of the 1.5 times the central region (dashed green lines). Based on A, we defined an outbreak as 100 or more total infections (vertical dashed lines in A and C). The probability of an outbreak and the median and 25–75% interval of outbreak sizes are printed in B and D.