Outbreak probability (top) and size (bottom) in basic training as a function of alternative scenarios for testing trainees upon arrival (x-axis) when test specificity is low (0.992).

Testing scenarios are labeled according to the day on which a test was administered to trainees following their arrival. From left to right, columns show increases from 0 to 0.01 to 0.10 of the probability that trainers and support staff were exposed to the virus in the community over the course of the 70-day training period. Error bars for outbreak probability indicate 95% Pearson-Clopper confidence intervals. (TIF)