New Policy Frame and Directions of Vocational Education, Training and Employment for Continuous Advances

본 연구에서 지속성장은 경쟁력 강화와 균형 잡힌 발전으로 구성된다. 경쟁력 강화는 산업과 기업의 경쟁력과 삶의 질 개선을 목표로 하고 균형 잡힌 발전은 좋은 일자리 확충과 사회적 양극화 해소를 목표로 한다. 이 연구의 목적은 경쟁력 강화와 균형 성장을 위한 교육훈련, 고용의 새로운 프레임과 주요 과제를 제시하는 것이다. 앞서 연구의 필요성에서 논의한 양적인 성장의 한계를 극복하고 질적인 성장을 추구하기 위하여 교육훈련 및 고용의 프레임을 새롭게 제시하고자 한다. 이러한 변화의 원인은 환경의 변화에 있다. 환경의 변화를 과학기술, 사회, 정치, 경제 및 환경의 관점에서 파악하고 이를 바탕으로 변화의 동인을 분석하였으며, 이러한 동인의 상호작용의 결과로 발생할 단기(5년 이내), 중기(5~10년), 장기(10~15년)적 미래를 전망했다. 이렇게 전망된 미래를 기반으로 새로운 교육훈련은 무엇이 변화되어야하고 또한 이러한 변화를 위한 전략과 내용을 새로운 프레임과 과제로 제시하고자 하였다.This research is designed to suggest necessary education and training, new employment framework and main tasks for Korea to accomplish sustainable development based on foresight in a future society. First, the study reviews earlier studies regarding the future foresight and understood future trends, key drivers and uncertainty which have impacts on the education and training, and employment in the future. The STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics) analysis framework is laid out to carry out this study. Second, the research focuses to analyze earlier studies, policies and NAVER news related to the education, training and employment in a time sequence. With the collection of data, the research shows the vocational education and training system (relationship between education, training and employment) and its main issues by using big data analysis. Furthermore, the study draws the future issues on the education, training and employment through the keyword matrix analysis. Third, the research selects the crucial future trends, key drivers, and uncertainty in the education, training and employment sectors. Experts group meetings and Delphi study ran in parallel to create the foresight scenario based on the results. The survey contributes not only to draw the high feasible scenario with a desirable picture of our future but also to show the policy issues for the education, training and employment. Fourth, the research suggests the new education, training, framework and policy issues for future employment based upon the analysis and survey results. Results of this report can be summarized as follow. First, four divers which underline main STEEP trends have been identified. ICT technology (AI, IOT, Big data, Virtual reality)innovation has most critical impact on economy, education and training. It has more potential impact on future of work and life. Within 10 years it would not erode number of jobs because it could help create new jobs, but after 10 years that will seriously erode jobs. ICT technology will change nature of job and daily life soon and later. Low birth rate and ageing are ready bring huge impact on society and economy negatively if emigration regulation will not be altered. It is possible to have more active aged population who would lead consumption in service industry. Korea society will allow ethnic diversity and gender equality. Emerging China economy has great impacts on economy. China would be a black hole for technology startups because China could attract highly motivated entrepreneurs from Korea. Competition between Korean companies and Chinese companies has started from traditional industries to cutting edged technology industries. Social and economic polarization has been a critical policy issue because it deteriorates quality of life and mid and long term national competitiveness. According to WEF (World Economic Forum) report on national competitiveness comparison, Korea was top 8th in 2008, but went down to 26th in 2015. Lack of Government policy consistency and transparency, low efficiency of conglomerates’ management, low efficiency of industry ecosystem (large company centered industry structure), mismatch between education provision and industry needs, and poor quality of industrial cooperation are main causes of the national competitiveness sliding. Reform of education &amptraining and job strategy is the most important measure to make a difference in national competitiveness. As the result of big data analysis, mismatch between job strategy and education system, national policy and public needs on job strategy have been identified. It is critical to address the mismatches. The researcher has developed multiple forecast scenarios in 5, 10, 15 years, based on literature review, expert intensive discussion reports and expert panel survey. In 5 year scenario, mainstreaming start-ups is the core factor to differentiate two scenarios. In 10 years, China and cooperation with the North Korea are the key uncertainties. In 15 years, artificial intelligence and robotics, and environmental emergency are main factor because after 1o years, smart machines could replace human labour directly. It is critical to prepare futures in order to make a better future. The report suggests new policy ideas. First category is on new idea and frame. 1. Increasing entrepreneurship and startup skills to make a breakthrough on employment uncertainty. Vocational education and training have to play pivotal role in this regards. 2. Digitalization of traditional skills to increase middle skill jobs. 3. Empowering skilled workforce in social and industrial relations to enhance skill-based-society as bearer of skill capital. Second category is on TVET system. 1. Customized career development and TVET system suitable for stage of the life cycle, 2. Developing national qualification framework to assess different format of skills in variety. 3. Life-long TVET platform based on smart technology to meet new emerging different needs. Third category is on strategic targets and areas. 1. New TVET system for the reunification era, 2. HRD Strategy of Korea culture wave industry and emerging industry development. 3. HRD and Job strategy for gender mainstreaming. 4. TVET Policy on Cultural diversity and massive emigration, 5. Globalization of TVET system and ODA, 6. Safety and TVET: how to make safer society through TVET measures.요약 제1장 서 론_1 제1절 연구의 필요성 및 목적 3 제2절 연구 내용 6 제3절 연구 방법 8 제2장 선행연구 분석_23 제1절 국가 경쟁력 보고서에서 나타난 지속성장 이슈 검토 25 제2절 교육훈련·고용에 영향을 끼칠 미래 트렌드 분석 43 제3절 일자리의 트렌드와 교육훈련 87 제3장 빅데이터를 활용한 교육훈련, 고용의 빅픽처 분석_101 제1절 빅데이터 분석의 개요 103 제2절 빅데이터 연관성 분석 결과 115 제3절 미래 키워드 매트릭스 분석 143 제4절 빅데이터 분석 결과 요약 및 시사점 종합 148 제4장 미래 전망_155 제1절 미래를 전망하는 주요 트렌드 및 동인 선정 157 제2절 교육훈련 및 고용에 미칠 불확실성 요인 190 제3절 미래 전망을 위한 교육훈련·고용의 시나리오 200 제4절 직업교육훈련 및 고용의 방향과 과제 설정 237 제5장 미래 전망 시나리오 설문조사 결과_259 제1절 조사 개요 261 제2절 단기 미래 전망 시나리오 263 제3절 중기 미래 전망 시나리오 267 제4절 장기 미래 전망 시나리오 271 제5절 소결 275 제6장 새로운 프레임과 정책 과제_279 제1절 교육훈련·고용의 프레임의 변화 281 제2절 교육훈련 시스템의 변화 309 제3절 직업능력개발 대상 및 영역별 전략 322 SUMMARY_347 참고문헌_35