Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Union County include Cove, Elgin, Imbler, Island City, La Grande, North Powder, Summerville, and the city of Union. Union County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s; however, some of its smaller sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Summerville, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. The population growth in the 2000s was the result of both net in-migration and natural increase. An aging population not only led to a slight increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2001 to 2017. A waning natural increase combined with sporadic net in-migration has led to slow population growth in the 2000s. Total population in Union County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely increase at a quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Slower growth is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that cuts into net in-migration throughout the forecast period. Union County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 1,300 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 2,270 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)