Coordinated Population Forecast for Lincoln County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2017-2067

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within the UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Lincoln County’s total population has grown slowly since 2000, with average annual growth rates of 0.3 percent between 2000 and 2010 (Figure 1). However, some of its sub-areas experienced more rapid population growth during the 2000s. Depoe Bay and Siletz posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.7 and 1.5 percent, respectively, during the 2000 to 2010 period. Lincoln County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with the rate at which women are choosing to have fewer children and having them at older ages has prompted births to stabilize in the last decade. The larger number of deaths relative to births caused natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2000 to 2015. While net in-migration has outweighed natural decrease for the majority of the 2000-15 period, the gap between these two numbers shrank during the late 2000s and early 2010s. In more recent years (2012 to 2015) net in-migration has increased, bringing with it population growth (Figure 12). Total population in Lincoln County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2017 to 2035) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by an aging population—a demographic trend which is expected to contribute to natural decrease (more deaths than births). As natural decrease steepens, population growth will become even more dependent upon net in-migration. Even so, Lincoln County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,000 over the next 18 years (2017-2035) and by more than 12,600 over the entire 50 year forecast period (2017-2067). Sub-areas that showed strong population growth during the 2000s are expected to experience decreasing rates of population growth during the forecast period