Coordinated Population Forecast for Jefferson County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s total population grew rapidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent between 2000 and 2010; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster or slower population growth. The Culver UGB posted the highest average annual growth rates at 5.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while all other sub-areas experienced average annual growth rates at or below that of the county as a whole. Jefferson County’s positive population growth in the 2000s was the result of steady natural increase (more births than deaths), supplemented by periodic influxes of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths created a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2000 to 2016, though it is diminishing. In recent years (2014-16), net in-migration has risen and overshadowed the declining natural increase, leading to strong population growth. Total population in Jefferson County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term. The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by the county’s transition to a natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Even so, Jefferson County’s total population is forecast to increase by more than 5,000 over the next 18 years (2018-2043) and by more than 8,700 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068)