Coordinated Population Forecast for Harney County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Harney County’s total population declined in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent; however, the Hines UGB experienced slight population growth during this same period, posting an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent. The Burns UGB experienced a growth rate of -0.7 percent, which is below that of the county as a whole. Harney County’s population decline in the 2000s was the result of net out-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages has led to births stagnating and a transition to a natural decrease (more deaths than births). Harney County experienced population loss in a majority of years between 2000 and 2013, though in recent years has grown due to a small net in-migration. Total population in Harney County as a whole as well as within its sub-areas will likely decline at a slow rate in both the near-term (2018 to 2043) and long-term (2043-2068). This forecasted decline is primarily driven by an aging population and a natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Harney County’s total population is forecast to decline by 302 over the next 18 years (2018-2043) and by 822 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068). Most of this population decline is expected in areas outside the UGBs, which is forecasted to decline at a faster rate than either of the UGBs in Harney County