Coordinated Population Forecast for Crook County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2018-2068

Different parts of the county experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the county as a whole. Crook County’s total population grew solidly in the 2000s, with an average annual growth rate of .9%; however the area outside the Prineville UGB experienced faster population growth. Prineville, the only UGB, posted an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent, while the area outside the UGB grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. Crook County experienced substantial swings in net migration throughout the 2000s, contributing to population growth rate fluctuations during this period. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths, but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having children at older ages, has led to births stagnating. Starting in 2010, the county transitioned from a natural increase to a natural decrease as the number of deaths overtook the births. Annual net in/out-migration fluctuated greatly, contributing to population growth and decline, though it has steadily increased over the past few years leading to strong population growth. Total population in Crook County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely grow at a faster pace in the near-term (2018 to 2043) compared to the long-term (2043-2068) (Figure 1). The tapering of growth rates is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that will cut into population growth from net in-migration. Crook County’s total population is forecast to increase by nearly 8,000 over the next 25 years (2018-2043) and by more than 15,000 over the entire 50-year period (2018-2068)