COVID-19 forecasts : deaths

Updated Dec. 23, 2020Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of December 21, 2020.Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths\u2022 This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 36 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new death only.\u2022 This week\u2019s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 16,400 to 27,600 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending January 16, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 378,000 to 419,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.\u2022 The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 16 jurisdictions and decrease in 7 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.2020882