COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Sept. 30, 2020

Updated Sept. 30, 2020Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of September 28, 2020.Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths\u2022 This week CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 44 modeling groups. Of the 44 groups, 39 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.\u2022 This week\u2019s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 2,700 to 8,600 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 24, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 219,000 to 232,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.\u2022 The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may decrease in four jurisdictions and increase in two jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.2020E:\cpapFiles\WebServer\COVIDdeathsForecastUS2020sep30eng.pdfhttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html841