Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) : forecasts of total deaths : updated July 9, 2020

Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts\u2022 This week CDC received 23 individual national forecasts.\u2022 This week\u2019s national ensemble forecast predicts that there will likely be between 140,000 and 160,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 1st.\u2022 The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Alabama, Florida, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Nevada, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and West Virginia, will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar to the number seen in the previous four weeks or to decrease slightly.National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.2020796