COVID-19 forecasts : cases

Updated Aug. 28, 2020Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 31, 2020.Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths\u2022 This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 35 modeling groups. Of the 35 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths and two provided forecasts for total deaths only.\u2022 This week\u2019s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may decrease nationally over the next four weeks, with 3,300 to 7,500 new deaths reported during the week ending September 26, 2020. The ensemble indicates that the number of total COVID-19 deaths is likely to reach between 200,000 to 211,000 by this date.\u2022 The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may decrease over the next 4 weeks in 3 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations -- National Forecasts -- State Forecasts -- Forecast Assumptions -- Modeling Groups.2020827