Global Protein Demand, Marine Fish Production and Trade Flows in the World of 2050

Suggested Bibliographic Reference: Challenging New Frontiers in the Global Seafood Sector: Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, July 11-15, 2016. Compiled by Stefani J. Evers and Ann L. Shriver. International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade (IIFET), Corvallis, 2016.Proceedings of the Eighteenth Biennial Conference of the International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, held July 11-15, 2016 at Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center (AECC), Aberdeen, Scotland, UK.Economic drivers of change, such as changes in demand and fishing technology, are as important for the future state of fish stocks as factors influencing ecological processes (Quaas et al. 2016) . Fish and seafood (FaS) are among the most globalized commodities, and markets will continue to globalize in the coming decades. Constantly improving fishing technology may lead to increasing fishing pressure unless management effectiveness is significantly improved. To take world-market interactions into account, we quantify a global demand system for wild-caught FaS, resolved at the large marine ecosystem (LME) scale, using FAO Fishstat data. Demand for domestically caught FaS and FaS imports further depends on population size, per-capita incomes, and supply of other protein-rich food (as substitutes for FaS). Based on scenarios for population and income developments, we use the estimated demand system to derive scenarios of future FaS demand. We feed these scenarios into a global bio-economic model to study the effects of FaS consumption levels allocated by globalized markets on catches and stock development. The fisheries model provides biomass development scenarios per functional group taking into account predator-prey interactions in a stylized fashion. We analyze the effect of improving fisheries management, and the scope of expanding the supply of farmed fish for relieving the pressure on wild capture fisheries. Preliminary results suggest that this scope is limited, as farmed FaS is only an imperfect substitute for wild capture fisheries, in particular for the more wealthy consumers, who are likely to grow in number in the coming decades