Fish as Food: Projections to 2020

Research PaperThe International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the World Fish Center (ICLARM), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), are collaborating to incorporate fish into IMPACT, a global model of food supply and demand that estimates market-clearing prices for 28 commodities in 36 regions. Results of the projections to 2020 are summarized for 10 economic categories of fisheries items, disaggregated into 15 geographic regions of the world. Global production of food fish is projected to rise by 1.5% annually through 2020, with two-thirds of this from aquaculture, whose share in total food fish production rises to 41%. The most likely scenario projects global per capita fish consumption at 17.1 kg in 2020, with sensitivity analysis indicating a margin of 2 kg/capita either way based on extreme scenarios for capture and aquaculture. Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China’s share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%. Fishmeal and oil prices will rise 18%; use of these commodities will increasingly be concentrated in carnivorous aquaculture. Growing domestic demand will dampen fish exports from developing countries; only Latin America will export a significant share (35%) of production. Sensitivity analysis shows that rates of technological change in aquaculture are key to real prices of low value finfish and fishmeal in the future