Development of cycling and influential demand factors in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, the share of the bicycle as the main mode in all person trips has been highly constant in the past three decades (about 27%). A constant share is remarkable because developments in this period were mainly unfavourable for bicycle use, like ageing of the population, growing number of immigrants, increasing car ownership, and a tendency to travel larger distances. The analysis of the paper confirms that, if only the autonomous developments on the demand side of the modal choice market are considered, a large majority of these is adverse for bicycle use. Estimations with a model show that, indeed, a decreasing trend in the market share of the bicycle could be expected, while a stable trend is observed. Probably, supply-side developments, in particular the long-term bicycle-friendly policy of the Dutch national and local governments, had a significant positive influence on bicycle use