1 Development of cycling and influential demand factors in the Netherlands

Abstract: In the Netherlands, the share of the bicycle as the main mode in all person trips has been highly constant in the past three decades (about 27%). A constant share is remarkable because developments in this period were mainly unfavourable for bicycle use, like ageing of the population, growing number of immigrants, increasing car ownership, and a tendency to travel larger distances. The analysis of the paper confirms that, if only the autonomous developments on the demand side of the modal choice market are considered, a large majority of these is adverse for bicycle use. Estimations with a model show that, indeed, a decreasing trend in the market share of the bicycle could be expected, while a stable trend is observed. Probably, supply-side developments, in particular the long-term bicycle-friendly policy of the Dutch national and local governments, had a significant positive influence on bicycle use