Stock Market Volatility and Deviations from Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Models

This paper investigates volatility in the US stock market and the effects of short-run deviations between stock prices and certain macroeconomic fundamentals over the period 1978: 1 1996: 12. The methodology followed is that of the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that the GARCH-X model outperforms the standard GARCH model, while they indicate a significant effect of the short-run deviations on volatility. (JEL G10