Barrier effects of international borders on fixed link traffic generation: the case of Øresundsbron

Traffic predictions for large road and rail projects are often inaccurate. International borders create political,cultural and economic barriers which reduce the demand for international transport, partly offset bysome opportunities which increase transport demand. An expert opinion approach is used to help identifyand evaluate the effect of these barriers on transport demand. The research explores why initial trafficlevels predicted for the Øresund fixed link between Copenhagen in Denmark and Malmö in Swedenwere not achieved. It uses the Danish Great Belt fixed link as a control case in assessing the scale of thesebarriers to interaction. Subsequent trans-Øresund traffic growth is attributed mainly to a tax agreementbetween the Danish and Swedish governments to assist cross-border commuters, to discounted tolls andto complementary labour and housing market opportunities