A simulation model for football championships

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like 'which team bad a lucky draw?' or 'what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?' Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.