The development and application of simulation techniques to professional football

Includes bibliographical references(pages 233-235)This thesis develops and presents a mathematical simulation for application to professional football.The results of individual plays are determined by matching the abilities and ratings of the opposing players and teams and the strategies of the opposing coaches.Any play may be affected by as many as nine variables,including, field position, two offensive and two defensive strategies, offensive and defensive formations and offensive and defensive ratings for the play. The importance of strategy having between 70 and 80 percent control over the outcome of a play - means that a unique body of theory may be developed for guiding coaches in play selection. The available offensive and defensive strategies total 168 combinations each. A section of this thesis, making assumptions about the character of the field position, offensive and defensive ratings and offensive and defensive formations - all the variables except the play selections - analyzes the relative attractiveness of the available offensive and defensive strategies independent of opposition's strategy. Both strategies are revised for the probabilities of the strategies of the opposition; the probability being a function of the relative attractiveness developed initially