Cumulative infection trajectories sampled from fitted model.

Our method is capable of obtaining distributions of disease parameters which reproduce true data closely over a variety of regions. The orange line represents true cumulative infections counts for 160 days starting from 7 days before the first day in which infections counts accounted for 0.5% of the population: May 3, 2020 for Los Angeles, March 29, 2020 for Miami-Dade, and March 15, 2020 for Middlesex. The blue lines represent 100 simulations of fnseir using disease parameters sampled from our fit variational distribution. The black lines represent quartiles for these 100 samples.