PERMODELAN DEMAND PENUMPANG BANDAR UDARA DOMINE EDUARD OSOK DI KOTA SORONG, PAPUA BARAT

The objectives of the study are to find models of passenger demand, forecast demand of passengers, and to analyze the airports service ability on Sorong- Makassar route, on the airports air-side and land-side facilities in the year of 2023. Sorong-Makassar route was chosen as a reference because it has the largest number of passenger movements when compared with other routes such as Sorong-Manokwari and Sorong-Ambon. Modeling analysis performed using Linear Regression Analysis, while selecting the best model based on the method of All Possible Regression (APRE) according to the criteria of R2 and by considering the value of a selected models statistical test, which is F-Test. Dependent variables (Y) are the number of passenger arrivals and departures, and there are 12 independent variables (X) namely total population (X1), Human Development Index or HDI (X2), number of lecturers (X3), education index (X4), number of domestic tourists (X5), number of foreign tourists (X6), number of motor vehicles (X7), number of ship visits (X8), Gross Domestic Product or GDP (X9), purchasing power of the population (X10), per capita income (X11), and per capita expenditure (X12). Based on the analysis, the model of passenger demand is Y = 13472,740X2 - 20,585X8 - 944929,088 (arrivals), which the X2 is Human Development Index (HDI) and X8 is the number of ship visits, and Y = -0,880X5 + 2,188X10 - 1302062,464 (departures), which the X5 is number of domestic tourists and X10 is the purchasing power of the population. The prediction of demand in 2023 resulting 192458 of arrival passangers and 187815 of departure passangers. According to the analysis result of air side facilities, it still be able to serve both the airports arrival and departure of passengers of Sorong-Makassar route in 2023, with 700 passanger/day > 528 passanger/day for arrival and 700 passanger/day > 515 passanger/day for departure. Airport land side facilities are also still able to serve passengers well until 2023. Existing passenger terminal with an area of 1184 m2 > 962.29 m2 of area needs. Existing parking lot with a capacity of 100 four-wheeled and 150 two-wheeled vehicles > 96 of vehicle needs, with an area of 3750 m2 > 3360 m2 of area need