MODEL KEBUTUHAN PENUMPANG BANDAR UDARA AHMAD YANI SEMARANG

ABSTRACT This thesis reviews the derivation of transportation demand model of Ahmad Yani Airport Semarang, for the dominant route namely Semarang-Jakarta and Semarang-Surabaya both for arrive and depart passengers. Service zone based on the distance of zone influenced by Ahmad Yani Airport for any areas in Central Java Province with concerns of effeects circle of the three adjacent airports and comparing the distance and time to cover a distance if we used any inland modes. Zone of service for Semarang-Jakarta route includes the following towns : Demak, Jepara, Pati, Purwodadi, Kendal, Kudus, Purwodadi, Rembang, Salatiga, the regency of and the municipality of Semarang. And for Semarang-Surabaya route includes the following towns : Demak, Jepara, Kendal, Kudus, Purwodadi, Salatiga, the regency of and the municipality of Semarang. The independent variable use for the social-economy condition of zone service is 12 variables, they are: X1 (amount of population), X2 (PDRB), X3 (PMA), X4 (PMDN), X5 (amount of workforce), X6 (number of large and moderate manufacturer), X7 (number of industrial workforce), X8 (foreign tourists), X9 (domistic tourists), X10 (degre of hotel occupation), X11 (number of students), X12 (number of teacher). And the dependent variable is Y (amount of plane passenger both arrive and depart). The approach process is a linearity test between dependent variables with each independent variables and thus we made the correlation matrices to obstain their correlation ( r). With the concern of this co-linearity effect we build some model alternatives, and then the probing quality of determination coefficients (R2) with test oft-test and F-test and the percentage of deviation was calculated. From the number of previous alternatives we selected the equation which have determination coefficient (R2) with values close to 1 and the smallest percentage of deviation. The model derived from this research is for route trend of Semarang-Jakarta, the departure is Y = 69949,9297+0,0117X2 and the arrival is Y = 64709,9149+0,127.X2, and trend of Semarang-Surabaya route, departure is Y = 26191,9051+0,0028.X2 and the arrival is Y = 0,1967.X7+7,4965.X12- 26847,5104. By 2005, total prediction results of the two routes is 736.130 passengers. From the prediction result by 2005 the number of 736.130 passengers is under the total passenger which ever been experienced in 1997 with 817.705, then it can be concluded that Alunad Yani Airport's infrastructure, especially passenger terminal and parking are sufficient. Results of this research is not a perfect one because of the limited of time and costs, and it is necessary to execute a further research employing. SINEW Wi.:11 AC iA( irS, es) vC1I'irsi1/41iii policy, origin-destination social-economy condition, and other dependent variables such as rail roads and bus passengers in the equal class