The Role of Educational Attainment in Migration Probability and Destination Selection for the Metropolitan Rust Belt, 1980-2000

The metropolitan Rust Belt has long been recognized as the industrial center of the United States. By the year 2000 many Rust Belt residents were leaving these industrial metropolitan areas for other parts of the country. My research looks to examine how deindustrialization triggers out migration in selected industrial metropolitan areas as well as how migrants are selected by educational attainment. Following this analysis, I examine proximate measures of social capital compared to educational attainment to determine which factors are most important for interregional migration decisions. Using census data for 1980, 1990, and 2000, I find that higher levels of deindustrialization trigger greater levels of out-migration from the metropolitan Rust Belt for 1980 while this relationship decreases over time. Binary logistic regression indicates that there is positive selection for migration where higher levels of educational attainment lead to higher odds of leaving the metropolitan Rust Belt. For destination choice, educational attainment does not attenuate social capital for Rust Belt migrants making interregional moves to the fast-growing South and West regions. The changing nature of the U.S. economy may be responsible for the importance of social networks for interregional migrants. The rising service economy is much more interactive and interpersonal than the shrinking industrial occupations, increasing the importance of being able to successfully navigate society and “connect” with clientele. As such, decisions on migration from one region to another may in part be determined by consideration of these macroeconomic changes taking place