COVID-19 forecasts : updated May 1, 2020

CDC is responding to a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that is spreading from person to person. The federal government is working closely with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks.Forecasts based on the use of statistical or mathematical models (subsequently referred to as \u201cmodels\u201d) aim to predict changes in national and state level cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths for the next four weeks. Forecasting teams predict numbers of deaths using different types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimates for the impacts of interventions (e.g. social distancing, use of face coverings).Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical -- What the Forecasts Aim to Predict -- National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US.2020760