Now or Never Revisited: An Analysis of Market Entry Timing for Successive Product Generation

Determining the optimal market entry timing for successive technological innovations is a critical decision for firms. Pioneering studies dealing with this issue have focused one-time sale (e.g., HDTV), and concluded that a new product should be introduced to the market either now or never, or now or at maturity. However, these prior studies do not examine another commonly seen business practice —revenue is generated from continuous services (e.g., Office 365). In this research, we derive the optimal market entry timing under both one-time sale and continuous service, and check whether the prior findings remain valid under today’s diverse market landscape. We find that under one-time sale, the optimal entry timing is not limited to now, maturity, or never; but it can also lie between now and maturity. More interestingly, our results show that the now or never rule holds only under a scenario not considered in the prior studies