One of the most widely accepted explanations for why wars occur despite ist Pareto-suboptimality is mutual optimism: if both sides expect to gain a lot by fighting, war becomes inevitable. The literature on mutual optimism typically assumes mutually optimistic beliefs and shows that, under such an assumption, war may occur despite its Pareto-suboptimality. In a war–peace model, we show that, if players neglect the correlation between other players’ actions and their types—a well-established concept in economics—then players’ expected payoffs from war increase relative to conventional informational sophistication predictions, hence providing a microfoundation of mutual optimism
Successful individuals were frequently found to be overly optimistic. This is puzzling because it mi...
Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfi...
We explore in an equilibrium framework whether games with multiple Nash equilibria are easier to pla...
Blainey (1988) popularized the argument that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations d...
argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about their relative powe...
Blainey (1988) argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about thei...
Blainey (1988) argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about thei...
A prominent international-relations theory posits that mutual optimism, due to two sides holding div...
A prominent international-relations theory posits that mutual optimism, due to two sides holding div...
W hy do states fight costly wars when less costly negotiated settlements are possible? Must there no...
We construct two-player two-strategy game-theoretic models of by-product mutualism, where our focus ...
We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders that features three of t...
The present paper studies the causes and duration of wars by building a war of attrition game, and e...
Why do so many major defence contracts fail to deliver to the contractually agreed performance, time...
This paper analyzes a general model of two-player bargaining in the shadow of war, where one player ...
Successful individuals were frequently found to be overly optimistic. This is puzzling because it mi...
Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfi...
We explore in an equilibrium framework whether games with multiple Nash equilibria are easier to pla...
Blainey (1988) popularized the argument that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations d...
argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about their relative powe...
Blainey (1988) argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about thei...
Blainey (1988) argued that crises are more likely to end in war when two nations disagree about thei...
A prominent international-relations theory posits that mutual optimism, due to two sides holding div...
A prominent international-relations theory posits that mutual optimism, due to two sides holding div...
W hy do states fight costly wars when less costly negotiated settlements are possible? Must there no...
We construct two-player two-strategy game-theoretic models of by-product mutualism, where our focus ...
We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders that features three of t...
The present paper studies the causes and duration of wars by building a war of attrition game, and e...
Why do so many major defence contracts fail to deliver to the contractually agreed performance, time...
This paper analyzes a general model of two-player bargaining in the shadow of war, where one player ...
Successful individuals were frequently found to be overly optimistic. This is puzzling because it mi...
Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfi...
We explore in an equilibrium framework whether games with multiple Nash equilibria are easier to pla...