[[alternative]]中華人民共和國的地緣政治利益分析 : 外交途徑、國安議題、以及經濟戰略

碩士[[abstract]]隨著中國經濟實力的崛起，國際的目光也跟著移轉到了亞洲地區。中國周遭的鄰國和世界各地的國家，無一不揣測著中國的下一步棋會怎麼走，以及對他們會帶來什麼樣子的影響。對於「中國將如何對國際社會做出貢獻，以及他所追求的利益是什麼？」這個問題，如今身處二十一世紀的我們，始終未有任何答案。當我們想到西方國家時，第一個浮現出的便是他們所倡導的自由主義（Liberalism），但是奉現實主義（Realism）為圭臬的亞洲的政治，對外依然存在著神秘感且戒心重重。現實主義代表著權力、安全、以及自身利益。在現實主義的準則之下，中國以現有的能耐，不僅能夠讓位於中國直接勢力影響圈裡的亞洲國家於危險的處境之外，還能夠藉由多米諾骨牌效應（the domino effect），將無法預期且極具侵略性的中國式鐵腕政治（Hard Politics of China）帶到世界的各個角落。 有鑑於此，進一步地探討中國所追求的經濟和地緣政治利益，可以讓我們更明瞭以及更好地預測中國於國際間的作為。然而，中國的不可預測性讓評估中國利益的這項任務變得十分困難。中國政府總是會對其他國家釋出模稜兩可的訊息（mixed signals），使得參與中國外交政策的國家時常模不著頭緒。中國的官方說法是中國正遵循著軟實力的執行外交政策，但是中國的行為卻顯露出種種硬實力外交的跡象。 本論文選擇三個鄰近中國的國家（俄羅斯、日本、以及南韓），來調查並研究中國於此三個國家中所追尋的經濟、政治、或/以及國安利益，以及根據自身利益所涉及之程度，中國是如何選擇使用軟實力或硬實力來對這些國家執行外交政策的。本研究將會顯示中國所牽涉之利益大小和首要追求的利益領域之間的關聯，以及中國能實施軟實力外交的程度。這些資訊不僅能用來瞭解和預測中國未來於亞洲區域的外交政策，對於中國未來於國際間的行為也是至關重要的。明白什麼領域對中國來說代表著首要目標，以及中國會透過什麼樣子的手段來達成這些目標，對世界上任何不論對中國是否有利可圖的國家來說，都是必要的。[[abstract]]With the rise of economic power of China, all eyes of international community had turned to Asian region. Direct neighbors of China and other countries from all over the world question themselves about the next move of China, and how this giant will influence them. In the twenty-first century, the question remains unanswered: how China will contribute to the international society and what are its interests? Thinking of Western countries, we think of Liberalism, however in Asia politics remain secretive and defensive, and still fall under the theory of Realism. Realism means power, security, and self-interest. This type of approach combined with China’s capabilities can create a dangerous situation not only for countries in Asia, that fall under the direct zone of influence of China, but also other countries, no matter how distant they are, the unpredictable and aggressive Hard Politics of China can trigger the domino effect that can touch many counties. That is why, further study of China’s interests (economic and geopolitical) can bring us closer to understanding and predicting to some degree China’s actions in international arena. The problematic part in assessment China’s interests lies in China’s unpredictability. The government of China sends mixed signals to other countries of international community, that greatly confuses those who are involved in China’s Foreign Policy. Official stand is that China is following Soft Power approach, however actions reveal still strong siding with Hard Power. In this thesis, I have chosen three neighbors of China (Russia, Japan, and South Korea) to investigate and research the interests that China sees in these countries- economic, political or/and security, and depending on the degree of interest involved for China, what Foreign Policy does China introduce (Hard or Soft Power approach) to deal with those countries. This research will show the correlation between amount of interest and preferred area of interest of China, and the ability of China to exercise the Soft Power approach. This is vital for understanding and predicting further actions of China in international arena, as well as in Asian region, bearing in mind what represents for China the highest interest and what is the approach of China to those, who do not represent any interest for the Celestial at all.[[tableofcontents]]Contents Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Aims and objectives 1 1.2 Theoretical background 2 1.3 Methodology: Choosing the research approach 5 1.3.1 Meta-geopolitics 7 1.3.2 The main concepts of the Realist approach to the problems of world politics 8 1.3.3 How alliances can be included to the Realist theory framework 10 1.4 Stating the hypotheses: expected results 11 Chapter 2: Literature review 15 Chapter 3: The New Diplomatic Dawn of Chinese Dominance in the Asian Region 23 3.1 General situation 23 3.2 Overview after Cold War: new priorities, shift from Hard to Soft Power Diplomacy 25 3.3 Other ways to influence: Alternative means China has to influence the world economy 27 Chapter 4. Shifting of Balance of Power in Russia-China Relations 31 4.1 Economic relations between China and Russia 31 4.2 Diplomatic approach to the Russian Federation of the Middle Kingdom 33 4.3 Security issues between China and Russia 35 Chapter 5. Possible Ways for Rapprochement and Share of Zones of Influence between China and Japan 41 5.1 Economic interests of China and Japan 41 5.1.1 Recent history of China-Japan Economic 42 5.2 China and Japan: competitors or cooperators? 43 5.2.1 Implications on the situation 45 5.3 Diplomatic conflicts and political situation between China and Japan 46 5.4 Security issues and territory clashes between China and Japan 48 Chapter 6: The Two Korea’s Issue and its Implication on China 52 6.1 Historical timeline of political relations between China and South Korea 53 6.2 Security issues in the Korean peninsula and its implication on the region 55 6.2.1 How China sees its priorities on Korean peninsula 56 6.3 China and North Korea 57 6.4 Economic aspect of China-South Korea relations 58 6.4.1 Possibility for further economic cooperation in North-East Asia: FTA 60 6.5 Diplomatic approach of China: Soft power vs. Hard Power 62 6.6 Final thoughts 65 Chapter 7: Conclusion 67 7.1 Conclusion on economic interests and success of China in Russian, Japanese, and South Korean markets 68 7.2 Conclusions on diplomatic approach of China in pursuit of its geopolitical interests in the region 69 7.3 Conclusions on security issues that arose in the region due to China’s pursuit of its geopolitical interests 71 Bibliography 74 Books 74 Magazines 75 Online sources 76 Foreign resources 78[[note]]學號: 604245182, 學年度: 10