[[alternative]]羅斯福政府在創建布列敦森林體系決策過程之研究(1941-1944)

碩士[[abstract]]1944年二戰結束前的夏天，為處理戰後經濟與財務危機，44個同盟國代表團在美國新罕布夏州，布列敦森林召開聯合國貨幣金融會議。羅斯福政府領導盟國共同成立國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 以及國際復興開發銀行 (IBRD)，爾後稱之為布列敦森林體系。由於世界黃金產量不足以支撐國際金融體系中不斷增長的貨幣流量，兩個國際金融組織提供了黃金與美元之間的固定匯率。美國政府並保證以每1美元換取35盎司黃金，促使美元成為戰後的國際儲備貨幣。 本論文採用學者艾里遜所提出的決策模式理論，即「理性行為模式」、「組織行為模式」以及「政府政治模式」作為理論架構。以此分析羅斯福政府在布列敦森林體系之決策過程中與盟國之間的互動、美國的利益考量、組織部門的文化與能力、以及官僚的議價過程。 在理性模式中，羅斯福政府拒絕英國凱因斯爵士所提出的國際清算聯盟 (ICU)和其他盟國提議的計畫，而堅持以國際貨幣基金與國際復興開發銀行來穩定戰後國際經濟金融體系。在組織模式中，國務院與財政部為爭奪經濟與金融政策的領導權而互別苗頭。國務院因本身組織文化就不擅長金融事務，使羅斯福總統較為信任財政部，因該部門經常處理金融事務及擁有較多的金融專家。在政府政治模式中，財政部長摩根索掌握了主導權。羅斯福總統在從政前與財長摩根索即為家族好友，摩根索並常與總統在私底下討論國家政策。反之，國務卿赫爾只是羅斯福總統所指派的政府官員。此外，摩根索的特別助理懷特所繪製的戰後經濟金融藍圖深受羅斯福總統的青睞。 因此，經由以上三種決策模式之分系，本論文的主旨為，羅斯福政府為穩定戰後國際經濟金融體系進而建立了以美國為主的布列敦森林體系，符合其國家利益。財政部的組織文化與能力較國務院更能領導金融政策，以及財長摩根索與羅斯福總統個人關係良好，使財政部在布列敦森林體系的決策過程中擁有完全的主導權。[[abstract]]In the summer of 1944, while World War II was still raging through Europe, forty-four Allied nations assembled at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, to reconstruct a postwar international economic and financial system. The Roosevelt administration played a critical role in leading the conference to establish an International Monetary Fund (IMF) and an International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The institutions of the Bretton Woods System provided a fixed relationship between U.S. dollar and gold. Since the gold production was insufficient to meet the demands of growing liquidity of international money flow, the dollar was the only existing currency strong enough to face the challenge. With the U.S. government converting one dollar into gold at $35 an ounce, the U.S. dollar became the postwar reserve currency. By applying Graham T. Allison’s three decision-making models, namely, Rational Actor Model (RAM), Organizational Behavior Model (OBM), and Governmental Politics Model (GPM), this thesis aims at exploring the decision-making processes of the Roosevelt administration in the formation of the Bretton Woods System during the period from 1941 to 1944. From the perspective of RAM, the United States rejected the International Clearing Union proposed by Lord John Maynard Keynes of Great Britain and other plans proposed by their allies, and thereby urged the establishment of the International Stabilization Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development to promote economic and financial stability and free trade around the world. From the perspective of OBM, warfare broke out between the Department of Treasury and Department of State because both agencies tried to gain more influence over each other. Eventually the Department of Treasury won the battle because it had more financial experts and more exercise in the field, whereas the Department of State did not have much of experience in making monetary and financial policies. From the perspective of GPM, FDR agreed with Henry Morgenthau Jr., the Secretary of Treasury, more than Cordell Hull, Secretary of State, because the Secretary Morgenthau had a highly specialized economist Harry Dexter White who drafted the blueprint for the two postwar international agencies. In addition, Morgenthau was a close family friend to FDR; hence he held an informal access channel to the President. As a result, Secretary Hull was literally incompatible with Secretary Morgenthau. In sum, the application of the three decision-making models serves to explain the underlying theme of the thesis; the United States gained economic dominance in the postwar era by leading the establishment of the Bretton Woods system; the Department of Treasury gained the upper hand over Department of State due to its organizational culture and capability; and the Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau Jr., was more involved than the Secretary of State, Cordell Hull, because he had a better access channel to the President.[[tableofcontents]]Contents Chapter One Introduction 1 1.1 Main Purpose and Main Theme 1 1.2 Literature Review 4 1.3 Methodology 9 1.4 Scope and Limitation 12 1.5 Outline of Chapters 15 Chapter Two Theories and Hypotheses 19 2.1 Rational Actor Model (RAM) 19 2.2 Organizational Behavior Model (OBM) 23 2.3 Governmental Politics Model (GPM) 27 2.4 Summary 31 Chapter Three Rational Actor Model 33 3.1 Lend-Lease and British Imperial Preferences 33 3.2 Fighting for Leadership 43 3.3 A New Economic and Monetary Order 52 3.4 Summary 65 Chapter Four Organizational Behavior Model 71 4.1 Department of State 72 4.2 Department of Treasury 77 4.3 Summary 90 Chapter Five Governmental Politics Model 93 5.1 Cordell Hull and the State Officials 94 5.2 Henry Morgenthau Jr. and the Treasury Officials 101 5.3 Summary 108 Chapter Six Conclusion 110 Preferences 119[[note]]學號: 698250064, 學年度: 9