Efficacy in averting clinical episodes in simulated clinical trials.

<p>The three panels correspond to different decay rates of vaccine efficacy: (A) 5-y half-life, (B) 10-y half-life, and (C) no decay. The dashed lines give the underlying efficacy. Each continuous line corresponds to a different model within the ensemble, and displays spline-smoothed estimates of efficacy in averting clinical disease. The grey area is an envelope enclosing all the simulation results. All simulations refer to the 20-ibpa transmission setting and the EPI schedule described in the <a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001157#s2" target="_blank">Methods</a>.