Case-control study results compared with modeled values.

<p>Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) as measured in the case-control study of Misegades et al [<a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004138#pcbi.1004138.ref022" target="_blank">22</a>] from 2010 in California (black crosses) compared with VE values generated by simulations of the case-control study using the model fitted to the incidence and these VE data (gray region). The gray shaded region represents the 95% credible interval of the model outputs. The dotted curve lying above the 2010 data and simulations was calculated by simulating a 1990 case-control study, and shows significantly slower waning of the VE value.