Impacts of vaccination assessed in 1,000 pairs of simulations with and without vaccination under the generic dengue vaccine profile.

Simulation pairs varied with respect to the proportion of vaccine efficacy due to protection from infection, p, (left column) and mean vaccine efficacy, VEmean (right column). The proportion of cumulative infections averted (top row) and cumulative disease episodes averted (bottom row) were based on the number of each in the simulation without vaccination minus the number of each in the simulation with vaccination, both following 20 years of routine vaccination of 9-year olds at 80% coverage. Lines show the proportion of infections or diseases episodes averted as a function of each parameter varied on the x-axis, as estimated by a generalized additive model with independent smooth terms for each parameter. When one parameter is varied, the other is held constant at the midpoint of its range, as are VEserostatus and VEserotype. Gray bands indicate 95% confidence intervals.