Observed HIV prevalence trends amongst key affected populations and low-risk females under the status quo versus projected prevalence trends in the absence of targeted programmes.

<p>Risk behaviours or interventions (left panels) and HIV prevalences (right panels) for each population group. HIV prevalence amongst pregnant women (as the low-risk female population) was assumed to be representative for the prevalence amongst the general population. Curves presented in the five figures in the left column were obtained from a generalised 4-parameter logistic function, whereas curves in the five right-hand figures were model trajectories. Solid curves represent median of 40 best-fitting trends under the status quo. Dashed curves represent assumed behaviour or modelled prevalence trends in the absence of programmes (i.e. the counterfactual). Black dots with solid vertical lines represent observed survey data with 95% confidence intervals. The vertical dash line indicates the initial year of programme implementation.