Observed and predicted HIV prevalence trends by risk groups.

<p>Observed and Predicted HIV prevalence among: A) all FSW nationalities combined, B) clients, C) all males (including FSW clients) and D) all females (excluding FSWs). Data points show the mean and 95% CIs of overall HIV prevalence from available data over time (solid red squares); open red squares (A) indicate data points for which CIs were not available. Solid lines (dashed lines) show the medians and 90%CrI (5th and 95th percentiles) of the modelling results. Good model fits under SIDA1/2/3 to the 38 targets used at the fitting stage (see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0102643#s2" target="_blank">methods</a>) are shown as greyed areas. Also shown are results for the counterfactuals CF-1 (red), assuming FSW condom use remains at 1993 levels, and CF-2 (blue) assuming that FSW condom use mirrors that by moderate risk females in the general population. Note that overall HIV prevalence data, which were used to cross-validate model predictions because they were not used at the fitting stage (A, C & D), show good agreement with the modelled trends.