The role of transport sector in CO2 reduction in Poland

The need for greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction from the atmosphere, resulting from the International Treaties signed by Poland is a serious challenge that requires a complex action in all economy sectors. The UE action plan towards low carbon economy is in line with conclusions of the 21st UN Climate Change Conference (COP21), held in Paris in 2015. The current EU climate and energy objective is to reduce its GHG emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. The transportation must play a vital role in achieving the target. The transport sector in Poland now is responsible for 15% of the total domestic CO2 emissions and this share is expected to grow as a consequence of economic development. The potential for CO2 reduction in this sector is significant. Unlocking this potential can be beneficial for the Polish economy and rational in terms of cost. For example, it would help to stem dependence on oil import, contribute to air quality improvement and accelerate the process of transport infrastructure modernization. Defining the pathways of the future development of the transport sector in Poland under given environmental restrictions requires extensive analysis and appropriate tools to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy instruments, which affect the level of demand and consequently the GHG emissions. In the article, a new “bottom-up” energy model has been proposed to make such assessments. The model, named STEAM-PL (Set of Tools for Energy Demand Analysis and Modeling), has been elaborated to predict future energy demand and emissions of pollutants based on long-term economy and policy scenarios in all economy sectors in Poland. The paper presents the methodological basis for the construction of the model and shows the results obtained for different scenarios concerning the future development of the transport sector