Add to ORKGCan citizens forecast the outcome of the UK election? In this post, Andreas Murr presents the results of his forecasting model, which predicts constituency level results by asking citizens in each constituency which party they think is likely to win in their area. The forecast suggests that there will be a hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituenc...
Last Thursday, the UK went to the polls. While different parts of the country voted in different ele...
The paper discusses the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next UK general e...
Citizen forecasting is the subject that ties this thesis together. Citizens base their vote choice i...
Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and gr...
Forecasting election results is hard. Forecasting UK election results is even harder. Forecasting in...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
Last week, a group of academics gathered at LSE to discuss a variety of forecasting models. In this ...
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituenc...
This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election...
When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lea...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
This paper examines two rival forecasting models of election outcomes for Britain. The first is a mo...
It is currently likely that no party will be a clear winner in next May’s General Election. What is ...
Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan discuss polling predictions and the likelihood of a hung parliament. Pleas...
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituenc...
Last Thursday, the UK went to the polls. While different parts of the country voted in different ele...
The paper discusses the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next UK general e...
Citizen forecasting is the subject that ties this thesis together. Citizens base their vote choice i...
Who do you think will win in your constituency? Most citizens correctly answer this question, and gr...
Forecasting election results is hard. Forecasting UK election results is even harder. Forecasting in...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
Last week, a group of academics gathered at LSE to discuss a variety of forecasting models. In this ...
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituenc...
This paper applies the Seats-Votes Model to the task of forecasting the outcome of the 2015 election...
When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lea...
Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls?...
This paper examines two rival forecasting models of election outcomes for Britain. The first is a mo...
It is currently likely that no party will be a clear winner in next May’s General Election. What is ...
Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan discuss polling predictions and the likelihood of a hung parliament. Pleas...
We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituenc...
Last Thursday, the UK went to the polls. While different parts of the country voted in different ele...
The paper discusses the prospects for successfully forecasting the outcome of the next UK general e...