La dolarización en Ecuador. Una interpretación de los hechos y resultados después de dos décadas. Periodo 2000-2020

The objective of the investigation was to interpret the dollarization process in Ecuador, what were the events that led public policy makers to such an extent and what have been its main results. The theoretical developments that support the object of study refer to categories and theories on dollarization, exchange rate regimes, sociology of money, inflation, economic growth, and fiscal policy. A comparative theoretical and statistical analysis (1990-2020) of the pre and post dollarization behavior of the indicators was carried out: macroeconomic, inflationary, productive sectors, labor market, external sector, monetary-financial sector, budgetary fiscal sector, labor market and social indicators keys, which show the most outstanding results of the process. Among the positive aspects, we can point out: Monetary stability with sustained economic growth basically in the first 14 years of dollarization; better performance of the labor market, mostly not adequate; improvement in wages and social indicators. Being the most significant achievement to contain and reduce inflation to one digit. This generated confidence in the different social actors who, beyond the legal provisions, concentrated the possibility of using money only in the dollar, consolidating their hegemony in the imaginations and practices of the population. However, GDP growth does not sustain itself -as evidenced by the crisis that began in 2015 aggravated in 2019-2020 by covid-19; because dollarization is only a policy strategy and, on the other hand, because GDP growth is not supported by an exportable productive structure, in turn depends on the conjunction of other variables such as fiscal policy and in particular on fiscal income, of public spending and indebtedness. Which basically depends on oil exports, variables that are vulnerable to external events. Keywords: dollarization, inflation, economic growth, macroeconomic variables, fiscal policy Ecuador.  La investigación tuvo como objetivo, interpretar el proceso de dolarización en Ecuador, cuáles fueron los hechos que conllevaron a los hacedores de política pública a tal medida y cuales han sido sus principales resultados. Los desarrollos teóricos que fundamentan al objeto de estudio, están referidos a categorías y teorías sobre dolarización, regímenes cambiarios, sociología del dinero, inflación, crecimiento económico, política fiscal. Se realizó un análisis teórico y estadístico comparativo (1990-2020) del comportamiento pre y pos dolarización de los indicadores: macroeconómicos, inflacionarios, sectores productivos, mercado laboral, sector externo, sector monetario- financiero, sector fiscal presupuestario, mercado laboral e indicadores sociales claves, que evidencian los resultados más resaltantes del proceso. Entre los aspectos positivos, se pueden señalar: Estabilidad monetaria con un crecimiento económico sostenido básicamente en los primeros 14 años de dolarización; un mejor desempeño del mercado laboral, en su mayoría no adecuado; mejora en los salarios y en los indicadores sociales. Siendo el logro más significativo el contener y reducir la inflación hasta un digito. Esto generó confianza en los diferentes actores sociales que más allá de las disposiciones legales, concentraron la posibilidad de usos del dinero únicamente en el dólar, consolidando su hegemonía en los imaginarios y prácticas de la población. Sin embargo, el crecimiento del PIB no se sostiene por sí mismos -como se evidenció a partir de la crisis que se inicia en el 2015 agravada en 2019-2020 por el covid-19; porque la dolarización es sólo una estrategia de política y por otra parte, porque el crecimiento del PIB al no sustentarse en una estructura productiva exportable, depende a su vez de la conjunción de otras variables como la política fiscal y en particular de los ingresos fiscales, del gasto público y del endeudamiento. Los cuales depende básicamente de las exportaciones petroleras, variables vulnerables a eventos externos. Palabras claves: dolarización, inflación, crecimiento económico, variables macroeconómicas, política fiscal Ecuador. ABSTRACT The objective of the investigation was to interpret the dollarization process in Ecuador, what were the events that led public policy makers to such an extent and what have been its main results. The theoretical developments that support the object of study refer to categories and theories on dollarization, exchange rate regimes, sociology of money, inflation, economic growth, and fiscal policy. A comparative theoretical and statistical analysis (1990-2020) of the pre and post dollarization behavior of the indicators was carried out: macroeconomic, inflationary, productive sectors, labor market, external sector, monetary-financial sector, budgetary fiscal sector, labor market and social indicators keys, which show the most outstanding results of the process. Among the positive aspects, we can point out: Monetary stability with sustained economic growth basically in the first 14 years of dollarization; better performance of the labor market, mostly not adequate; improvement in wages and social indicators. Being the most significant achievement to contain and reduce inflation to one digit. This generated confidence in the different social actors who, beyond the legal provisions, concentrated the possibility of using money only in the dollar, consolidating their hegemony in the imaginations and practices of the population. However, GDP growth does not sustain itself -as evidenced by the crisis that began in 2015 aggravated in 2019-2020 by covid-19; because dollarization is only a policy strategy and, on the other hand, because GDP growth is not supported by an exportable productive structure, in turn depends on the conjunction of other variables such as fiscal policy and in particular on fiscal income, of public spending and indebtedness. Which basically depends on oil exports, variables that are vulnerable to external events. Keywords: dollarization, inflation, economic growth, macroeconomic variables, fiscal policy Ecuador. Información del manuscrito:Fecha de recepción: 05 de julio de 2023.Fecha de aceptación: 20 de septiembre de 2023.Fecha de publicación: 16 de octubre de 2023