Partitioning the effects of habitat loss hunting and climate change on the endangered Chacoan peccary

Aim: Land-use change and overexploitation are major threats to biodiversity, and cli mate change will exert additional pressure in the 21st century. Although there are strong interactions between these threats, our understanding of the synergistic and compensatory effects on threatened species' range geography remains limited. Our aim was to disentangle the impact of habitat loss, hunting and climate change on spe cies, using the example of the endangered Chacoan peccary (Catagonus wagneri). Location: Gran Chaco ecoregion in South America. Methods: Using a large occurrence database, we integrated a time-calibrated species distribution model with a hunting pressure model to reconstruct changes in the distri bution of suitable peccary habitat between 1985 and 2015. We then used partitioning analysis to attribute the relative contribution of habitat change to land-use conver sion, climate change and varying hunting pressure. Results: Our results reveal widespread habitat deterioration, with only 11% of the habitat found in 2015 considered suitable and safe. Hunting pressure was the strong est single threat, yet most habitat deterioration (58%) was due to the combined, rather than individual, effects of the three drivers we assessed. Climate change would have led to a compensatory effect, increasing suitable habitat area, yet this effect was ne gated by the strongly negative and interacting threats of land-use change and hunting. Main Conclusions: Our study reveals the central role of overexploitation, which is often neglected in biogeographic assessments, and suggests that addressing overex ploitation has huge potential for increasing species' adaptive capacity in the face of climate and land-use change. More generally, we highlight the importance of jointly assessing extinction drivers to understand how species might fare in the 21st century. Here, we provide a simple and transferable framework to determine the separate and joint effects of three main drivers of biodiversity loss.Fil: Torres, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal ; Argentina.Fil: Kuemmerle, Tobias. Humboldt-University Berlin. Integrative Research Institute for Transformations in Human Environment Systems. Geography Department; AlemaniaFil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-University. Geography Department; Alemania.Fil: Romero Muñoz, Alfredo. Humboldt University. Geography Departament; Alemania. University of British Columbia. Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES); Canada. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. Department Computational Landscape Ecology; Alemania. Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys). Integrative Research Institute; AlemaniaFil: Altrichter, Mariana. IUCN SSC Peccary Specialist Group; Suiza. Prescott College. Environmental Studies; Estados UnidosFil: Boaglio, Gabriel Ivan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal; ArgentinaFil: Cabral, Hugo. Universidade Estadual Paulista. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Biologia Animal; Brasil. Instituto de Investigación Biológica del Paraguay; ParaguayFil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología del Litoral. Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación; ArgentinaFil: Campos Kraver, Juan M. University of Florida. College of Veterinary Medicine & Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation. Department of Large Animal Clinical Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Giordano, Anthony. Society for the Preservation of Endangered Carnivores and their International Ecological Study (S.P.E.C.I.E.S); Estados Unidos. University of Los Angeles. Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Center for Tropical Research; Estados UnidosFil: Cartes, José L. Guyra Paraguay, Parque del Río; ParaguayFil: Cuéllar, Rosa L. Fundación para la Conservación del Bosque Chiquitano; BoliviaFil: Decarre, Julieta. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Instituto de Recursos Biológicos; ArgentinaFil: Gallegos, Marcelo. Provincia de Salta. Secretaría de Ambiente; ArgentinaFil: Lizárraga, Leónidas. Administración De Parques Nacionales. Dirección Regional Noroeste. Salta; Argentina.Fil: Maffei, Leonardo. Biósfera Consultores Ambientales, Lima, Perú.Fil: Neris, Nora N. Secretaria del Ambiente; ParaguayFil: Quiroga, Verónica. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Inst. de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA – CONICET), Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Saldivar, Silvia. ITAIPU Binacional. Dirección de Coordinación. División de Áreas Protegidas; ParaguayFil: Tamburini, Daniela Maria. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Ecología y Recursos Naturales Renovables; Argentin