Probabilistic aeroelastic analysis of high-fidelity composite aircraft wings with manufacturing variability

Safety margins of aerospace structures can be improved through altering the laminate parameters of composite materials to increase flutter and divergence velocities. \textcolor{red}{Existing work demonstrates the impact of material uncertainties on low-fidelity structural models that are not sufficient to represent realistic aircraft designs.} A gap exists in quantifying laminate parameter uncertainties on aeroelasticity for high-fidelity three-dimensional composite structures in realistic tailored designs. This paper puts forward an efficient methodology for uncertainty quantification on the aeroelastic characteristics of three-dimensional composite structures using FE-based parametric composite models and advanced Kriging surrogate models. The methodology is tested on both \textcolor{red}{low and high fidelity} case studies to represent the composite wing structure. Similarities between the case studies are observed in the coefficient of variance of all hard flutter modes being within 0.15-1.4\% of each other. The difference was found for divergence and soft flutter velocities where the coefficient of variance could be over ten times higher in the \textcolor{red}{high fidelity} case. Global sensitivity results revealed similar physical behaviour cases can be produced from both studies at early design stages