Building resilience in a recession

Professor Frank Peck examines recent trends in economic indicators and considers scenarios for different sectors in the Cumbrian economy in the next 12 months. Recent reviews of the economic prospects for the UK make sombre reading. Latest data from the Office for National Statistics indicate that GDP levels have recovered from the major fall in activity arising from the pandemic but recovery is now faltering significantly. The first quarter of 2022 recorded low growth on the previous quarter (+0.8%) and the initial estimate for the second quarter (April to June) records negative growth of -0.1%. Most commentators now expect the UK to go into recession by the end of 2022 (technically, two successive quarters of negative growth)