Zambia's Energy Transition Outlook

A renewables-based energy transition promises to deliver vast socio-economic benefits to countries across Africa, improving energy access, creating jobs and boosting energy security. To realise these benefits, African countries have an opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuel technologies to a more sustainable, climate-friendly power strategy aligned with the Paris Agreement and low-carbon growth. Zambia intends to conditionally reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 47% by 2030. At the same time, improving energy access remains a priority, as only 43% of the population has access to electricity. To meet growing energy demand, the government has identified energy efficiency as a priority in the country’s nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Zambia’s National Development Plan includes plans to increase geothermal, wind and solar electricity generation by 2030. Beyond its domestic energy transition efforts, Zambia plays an important role in the global energy transition as a major exporter of copper, a mineral used for low-carbon technologies and electricity networks. As copper production increases, the country also faces increasing demand for energy needed to sustain copper mining activities. In March 2021,the government of the republic of Zambia launched a K40 million Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for the development of the electricity sector in the country, to among others ascertain Zambia’s electricity investment needs, improve the reliability, affordability of electricity supply, reduce costs for delivering electricity services and minimize environmental and climate change impacts. The IRP process was finalized in May 2022 which proposed several capacity expansion projects (i.e. generation, transmission and distribution) to meet both local and regional demand in 2026, 2030, 2040 and 2050. Therefore, this research explores the energy transition outlook for Zambia through scenario analyses which include the business as usual (BAU), integrated resource plan (IRP) and Net Zero prospects to align with agenda 2063 for Africa