Notenbankinterventionen und Effizienz der Devisenmärkte | Überlegungen zur Dollarkursentwicklung

Intervention Policy and the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets. Reflections to the Fluctuating Dollar The violent and continuous fluctuations of the dollar since the introduction of flexible exchange rates in 1973 are the outcome of a quantity of speculative portfolio decisions. Under the name of „managed floating“ foreign exchange market interventions took place in a high degree but could not stop the exchange rate speculation. This in mind it is analysed in the present paper, whether there are arguments for a lack of efficiency in foreign exchange markets and whether exchange market interventions have some influence on the efficiency of foreign exchange markets. It is shown yet, that the evidently strong fluctuations of the dollar are consistent with an efficient foreign exchange market, as far as the exchange rate fluctuations clearly are not systematic, i.e. as far as they are stochastic. However the kind of intervention policy the German Bundesbank applied was mostly appropriated rather to worsen than to improve the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. Only a consistent, transparent and in certain bounds predictable intervention strategy can bring about the stabilization of expectations which is necessary for the stabilization of the exchange rate. Only such an intervention policy at the same time can improve the efficient evaluation of informations on the foreign exchange market