Optionen für die Integration von Power-to-Fuel in den Energiewendeprozess aus einer sozioökonomischen Perspektive

The debate on the German Energiewende is focused on the challenges of fluctuating electricity generation from photovoltaic and wind power. However, in order to achieve international climate protection goals, a transformation of all energy sectors is necessary. This requires alternative solutions. A direct electrification of heavy transport, aviation, shipping and the chemical industry appears to be an unlikely future scenario. Instead, synthetic fuels made of renewable electricity (power-to-fuel, P2F) could provide energy to these applications. Furthermore, the P2F concept may contribute to the integration of fluctuating renewable electricity generation. However, renewable synthetic fuels are not economically competitive against conventional fuels yet. In this article, their potential development in Germany is simulated for a horizon of 20 years with a newly developed agent-based model. Besides regulatory decisions and social impacts, representative investing and customer groups were implemented with particular characteristics, which allows identifying relevant options for an economic uptake of the P2F concept