Climatic control of tracheid production of black spruce in dense mesic stands of eastern Canada

Inferences on climate change effects are reliable only if they are based on a causal relationship rather than simple statistical predictive capacity. To assess for causal links between climate and mature black spruce (Picea mariana (Mills.) BSP) radial growth, we combined the use of wood anatomy, cambium phenology, climate and soil measurements (air temperature and humidity, precipitations, soil temperature and water content, photosynthetically active radiation), and a model selection approach proceeding backwards from a full model. Results show that the number of tracheids is responsible for 88% of the variation in ring width whereas mean tracheid diameter accounts for the remaining 12%. The number of tracheids produced depends on factors related to photosynthesis during tracheid production, i.e., daily light intensity and maximum temperature between the day of initiation and the day of cessation of tracheid production, plus soil temperature during August of the previous year which is an important period for determining the number of new needles produced. It is also important to consider duration of the period for tracheid production. These results imply that short-term climate change should increase black spruce radial growth. They also suggest that the typical use of post-growth ring width sampling individually linked to air temperature and precipitations is not sufficient to infer climate change effects accurately on radial growth where there is no strong single climatic limitation but multiple limitations instead