The energy transition, critical minerals and industrialisation in sub-Saharan Africa: needs, opportunities, and strategies.

The energy transition, evidenced by continuing resolutions to limit fossil fuel production and consumption to tackle climate change, has become one of the most hotly debated contemporary geopolitical issues. On the other hand, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which has an abundance of both fossil fuels and critical mineral resources, remains the least diversified continent and is highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as seen with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Recognising the crucial role of the mining sector – specifically the role of critical minerals – this chapter adds to the energy transition literature by examining two under-explored questions. First, what is likely to be the longer-lasting implication of the energy transition away from fossil fuels for SSA? Second, can the region leverage clean energy to drive industrialisation while learning from past failed attempts? Based on a critical analysis of several decades of industrialisation and development literature in Africa, we posit that the energy transition in the SSA context cannot and must not just be about reducing emissions or decarbonisation as the foremost objective. This is because SSA has the lowest share (less than 4%) of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but faces acute energy poverty. Furthermore, while there are clear opportunities for green industrialisation and other industries without smokestacks, we demonstrate that these can co-exist with traditional resource-based industrialisation. However, there is a need to address structural bottlenecks that impede innovation, such as providing reliable and cheap power and a stable investment regime and business environment. These findings provide insights into how African policymakers can identify windows of opportunity within the energy transition to implement interventionist policies focused on developing linkages and value chains to industrialise