A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour.Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest,we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’sresults into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the officialranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuringthe predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns