The top figure shows the response to an outbreak on day zero (100 exposed individuals). Under feedback with 14 days of delay (blue), the case load as a result of the outbreak is ∫IT(t)dt = 2022, compared to ∫IT(t)dt = 406 for feedback with two days of delay (yellow). The bottom figure shows the corresponding interventions. Reducing the delay also reduces the cumulative interventions required to control the outbreak by 6.7%. Right: The update frequency for interventions needs to be appropriate. When interventions are implemented with daily updates (yellow, as in the left panels), weekly updates (dotted) or updates every two weeks (dash-dotted), we observe similar levels of pandemic control. Updates to interventions every four weeks (dashed) ...
Early assessments of the growth rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expecte...
We model COVID-19 data for 89 nations and US states with a recently developed formalism that describ...
BackgroundAs the global population soars, human behaviours are increasing the risk of epidemics. Obj...
Left: A new variant that is 2.5 times more infectious (R0v = 7.5, introduced after 425 days indicate...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
Left: After 50 days, the effectiveness of interventions decreases. Feedback control increases the le...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
In the first scenario, interventions that lead to zero growth from the initial IT = 400 are maintain...
The unconstrained growth rate of COVID-19 is crucial for measuring the impact of interventions, asse...
<div><p>Effect of time delay until intervention on outbreak size is contrasted for outbreaks with <i...
We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical (NPI) intervention response to...
From The Royal Society via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-04-21, pub-electronic 2021...
Monte Carlo simulation results: The median is indicated with a thick line, the 25–75th percentiles a...
The time available to implement successful control measures against epidemics was estimated. Critica...
Early assessments of the growth rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expecte...
We model COVID-19 data for 89 nations and US states with a recently developed formalism that describ...
BackgroundAs the global population soars, human behaviours are increasing the risk of epidemics. Obj...
Left: A new variant that is 2.5 times more infectious (R0v = 7.5, introduced after 425 days indicate...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
Left: After 50 days, the effectiveness of interventions decreases. Feedback control increases the le...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
The extent to which reporting delays should be reduced to gain substantial improvement in outbreak c...
In the first scenario, interventions that lead to zero growth from the initial IT = 400 are maintain...
The unconstrained growth rate of COVID-19 is crucial for measuring the impact of interventions, asse...
<div><p>Effect of time delay until intervention on outbreak size is contrasted for outbreaks with <i...
We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical (NPI) intervention response to...
From The Royal Society via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: accepted 2021-04-21, pub-electronic 2021...
Monte Carlo simulation results: The median is indicated with a thick line, the 25–75th percentiles a...
The time available to implement successful control measures against epidemics was estimated. Critica...
Early assessments of the growth rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expecte...
We model COVID-19 data for 89 nations and US states with a recently developed formalism that describ...
BackgroundAs the global population soars, human behaviours are increasing the risk of epidemics. Obj...