Forecast comparison over the testing period (2021).

Relative mean absolute error (MAE) comparing our prediction model vs. a model that predicts a seasonal median, by province and step forward (in biweeks).

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

Results to the left of the dotted line signify more accurate predictions from our models when com...

Results of two-week-ahead forecasting with four individual approaches.

Qinneng Xu (3993407)
Yulia R. Gel (3993401)
L. Leticia Ramirez Ramirez (3993404)
Kusha Nezafati (3993410)
Qingpeng Zhang (274356)
Kwok-Leung Tsui (808419)

May 2017

In each figure, the black line denotes the observed ILI and the red line denotes the estimated IL...

One month-ahead forecasts.

Joseph A. Lewnard (651776)
Lara Jirmanus (651777)
Nivison Nery Júnior (651778)
Paulo R. Machado (234649)
Marshall J. Glesby (109595)
Albert I. Ko (90448)
Edgar M. Carvalho (109596)
Albert Schriefer (234659)
Daniel M. Weinberger (263005)

October 2014

(A) Null model; (B) Best-fitting model according to BIC; (C) Averaged model according to BIC. Bla...

Comparison over the fitting period.

Luis A. Barboza (6705467)
Shu-Wei Chou-Chen (14425303)
Paola Vásquez (14425306)
Yury E. García (12568899)
Juan G. Calvo (14425309)
Hugo G. Hidalgo (6892922)
Fabio Sanchez (14425312)

January 2023

Upper six panels: best cantons according to NIS metric. Lower three panels: worst cantons according ...

Observed climate covariates and forecast values at two specific cantons: Alajuela (left panels) and Quepos (right panels).

Luis A. Barboza (6705467)
Shu-Wei Chou-Chen (14425303)
Paola Vásquez (14425306)
Yury E. García (12568899)
Juan G. Calvo (14425309)
Hugo G. Hidalgo (6892922)
Fabio Sanchez (14425312)

January 2023

Black line: observed climate covariates, red line: forecast values, and red shaded areas: 95% confid...

Comparison of submitted forecast and final CDC-reported % of clinic visits that were for ILI for the continental USA and three selected regions.

Michal Ben-Nun (413104)
Pete Riley (413103)
James Turtle (6728930)
David P. Bacon (413109)
Steven Riley (31524)

May 2019

Final season CDC reported (black line), reported during the season (black circles) and predicted %IL...

Comparison of province-level prediction accuracy between full-data and real-time predictions, by prediction horizon.

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

These calculations assume that both the full-data and real-time multi-step predictions began at t...

Forecasting metrics and scores of the best semi-mechanistic model variant compared to null models.

Sebastian Funk (101950)
Anton Camacho (467996)
Adam J. Kucharski (124315)
Rachel Lowe (603632)
Rosalind M. Eggo (3169602)
W. John Edmunds (28055)

February 2019

Metrics shown are (A) calibration (p-value of Anderson-Darling test, greater values indicating bette...

Summary of real-time prediction accuracy, by prediction horizon.

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

These results are aggregated across all provinces. The R2 and 95% PI coverage c...

Comparison of various prediction methods in terms of the area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Bernd Lütkenhöner (486490)
Türker Basel (486491)

November 2013

Comparison of various prediction methods in terms of the area under the ROC curve (AUC).</p

Predictions according to year and finish time.

Konstantinos Liverakos (5579699)
Kate McIntosh (5579702)
Christopher J. A. Moulin (5579705)
Akira R. O’Connor (2621080)

August 2018

Panel A shows the proportion of predictions collapsed across all years. Panels B and C shows stac...

Comparison of GRS predictions.

Benjamin W. Domingue (592124)
Daniel W. Belsky (592125)
Kathleen Mullan Harris (366948)
Andrew Smolen (592126)
Matthew B. McQueen (178154)
Jason D. Boardman (592127)

July 2014

Panel A compares the predictive performance of GRS-E in both white and black samples of Add Healt...

Comparison of incidence cases simulated and estimated between the selected four models and observations.

Yongbin Wang (849861)
Chunjie Xu (6157367)
Zhende Wang (6157370)
Shengkui Zhang (4747827)
Ying Zhu (90057)
Juxiang Yuan (501461)

December 2018

The shaded area represents the validation data points from December 2017 to May 2018, in which the c...

Comparisons of the forecasting performance of all the alternative models for China.

Yigang Wei (4836318)
Zhichao Wang (3570413)
Huiwen Wang (1731532)
Yan Li (23143)
Zhenyu Jiang (646556)

April 2019

Comparisons of the forecasting performance of all the alternative models for China.</p

Comparison of evaluation metrics of models at different forecasting horizons.

Xiaoran Geng (16523586)
Yue Ma (384284)
Wennian Cai (16523583)
Yuanyi Zha (16523589)
Tao Zhang (43681)
Huadong Zhang (8501079)
Changhong Yang (5117735)
Fei Yin (179978)
Tiejun Shui (844749)

September 2023

Comparison of evaluation metrics of models at different forecasting horizons.</p

Relative mean absolute error (MAE) comparing our prediction model vs. a model that predicts a seasonal median, by province and step forward (in biweeks).

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

Results to the left of the dotted line signify more accurate predictions from our models when com...

Results of two-week-ahead forecasting with four individual approaches.

Qinneng Xu (3993407)
Yulia R. Gel (3993401)
L. Leticia Ramirez Ramirez (3993404)
Kusha Nezafati (3993410)
Qingpeng Zhang (274356)
Kwok-Leung Tsui (808419)

May 2017

In each figure, the black line denotes the observed ILI and the red line denotes the estimated IL...

One month-ahead forecasts.

Joseph A. Lewnard (651776)
Lara Jirmanus (651777)
Nivison Nery Júnior (651778)
Paulo R. Machado (234649)
Marshall J. Glesby (109595)
Albert I. Ko (90448)
Edgar M. Carvalho (109596)
Albert Schriefer (234659)
Daniel M. Weinberger (263005)

October 2014

(A) Null model; (B) Best-fitting model according to BIC; (C) Averaged model according to BIC. Bla...

Comparison over the fitting period.

Luis A. Barboza (6705467)
Shu-Wei Chou-Chen (14425303)
Paola Vásquez (14425306)
Yury E. García (12568899)
Juan G. Calvo (14425309)
Hugo G. Hidalgo (6892922)
Fabio Sanchez (14425312)

January 2023

Upper six panels: best cantons according to NIS metric. Lower three panels: worst cantons according ...

Observed climate covariates and forecast values at two specific cantons: Alajuela (left panels) and Quepos (right panels).

Luis A. Barboza (6705467)
Shu-Wei Chou-Chen (14425303)
Paola Vásquez (14425306)
Yury E. García (12568899)
Juan G. Calvo (14425309)
Hugo G. Hidalgo (6892922)
Fabio Sanchez (14425312)

January 2023

Black line: observed climate covariates, red line: forecast values, and red shaded areas: 95% confid...

Comparison of submitted forecast and final CDC-reported % of clinic visits that were for ILI for the continental USA and three selected regions.

Michal Ben-Nun (413104)
Pete Riley (413103)
James Turtle (6728930)
David P. Bacon (413109)
Steven Riley (31524)

May 2019

Final season CDC reported (black line), reported during the season (black circles) and predicted %IL...

Comparison of province-level prediction accuracy between full-data and real-time predictions, by prediction horizon.

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

These calculations assume that both the full-data and real-time multi-step predictions began at t...

Forecasting metrics and scores of the best semi-mechanistic model variant compared to null models.

Sebastian Funk (101950)
Anton Camacho (467996)
Adam J. Kucharski (124315)
Rachel Lowe (603632)
Rosalind M. Eggo (3169602)
W. John Edmunds (28055)

February 2019

Metrics shown are (A) calibration (p-value of Anderson-Darling test, greater values indicating bette...

Summary of real-time prediction accuracy, by prediction horizon.

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

These results are aggregated across all provinces. The R2 and 95% PI coverage c...

Comparison of various prediction methods in terms of the area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Bernd Lütkenhöner (486490)
Türker Basel (486491)

November 2013

Comparison of various prediction methods in terms of the area under the ROC curve (AUC).</p

Predictions according to year and finish time.

Konstantinos Liverakos (5579699)
Kate McIntosh (5579702)
Christopher J. A. Moulin (5579705)
Akira R. O’Connor (2621080)

August 2018

Panel A shows the proportion of predictions collapsed across all years. Panels B and C shows stac...

Comparison of GRS predictions.

Benjamin W. Domingue (592124)
Daniel W. Belsky (592125)
Kathleen Mullan Harris (366948)
Andrew Smolen (592126)
Matthew B. McQueen (178154)
Jason D. Boardman (592127)

July 2014

Panel A compares the predictive performance of GRS-E in both white and black samples of Add Healt...

Comparison of incidence cases simulated and estimated between the selected four models and observations.

Yongbin Wang (849861)
Chunjie Xu (6157367)
Zhende Wang (6157370)
Shengkui Zhang (4747827)
Ying Zhu (90057)
Juxiang Yuan (501461)

December 2018

The shaded area represents the validation data points from December 2017 to May 2018, in which the c...

Comparisons of the forecasting performance of all the alternative models for China.

Yigang Wei (4836318)
Zhichao Wang (3570413)
Huiwen Wang (1731532)
Yan Li (23143)
Zhenyu Jiang (646556)

April 2019

Comparisons of the forecasting performance of all the alternative models for China.</p

Comparison of evaluation metrics of models at different forecasting horizons.

Xiaoran Geng (16523586)
Yue Ma (384284)
Wennian Cai (16523583)
Yuanyi Zha (16523589)
Tao Zhang (43681)
Huadong Zhang (8501079)
Changhong Yang (5117735)
Fei Yin (179978)
Tiejun Shui (844749)

September 2023

Comparison of evaluation metrics of models at different forecasting horizons.</p

Relative mean absolute error (MAE) comparing our prediction model vs. a model that predicts a seasonal median, by province and step forward (in biweeks).

Nicholas G. Reich (167708)
Stephen A. Lauer (716220)
Krzysztof Sakrejda (2837681)
Sopon Iamsirithaworn (260152)
Soawapak Hinjoy (332639)
Paphanij Suangtho (2837678)
Suthanun Suthachana (2837675)
Hannah E. Clapham (2157634)
Henrik Salje (589157)
Derek A. T. Cummings (116201)
Justin Lessler (116180)

June 2016

Results to the left of the dotted line signify more accurate predictions from our models when com...

Results of two-week-ahead forecasting with four individual approaches.

Qinneng Xu (3993407)
Yulia R. Gel (3993401)
L. Leticia Ramirez Ramirez (3993404)
Kusha Nezafati (3993410)
Qingpeng Zhang (274356)
Kwok-Leung Tsui (808419)

May 2017

In each figure, the black line denotes the observed ILI and the red line denotes the estimated IL...

One month-ahead forecasts.

Joseph A. Lewnard (651776)
Lara Jirmanus (651777)
Nivison Nery Júnior (651778)
Paulo R. Machado (234649)
Marshall J. Glesby (109595)
Albert I. Ko (90448)
Edgar M. Carvalho (109596)
Albert Schriefer (234659)
Daniel M. Weinberger (263005)

October 2014

(A) Null model; (B) Best-fitting model according to BIC; (C) Averaged model according to BIC. Bla...

Forecast comparison over the testing period (2021).

Abstract

Extracted data

Forecast comparison over the testing period (2021).

Abstract

Extracted data

Related items

Related items