After Putin – what?

By calling for Putin’s removal from power, Western officials and scholars magnify Russian historic fears of a state collapse. Worse, they magnify them by fueling the Kremlin propaganda machine and reinforcing Russians’ reluctance to turn against their regime. Still, Putin will inevitably have to go someday. When that day arrives, however, it is all but clear what the future for Russia will be. Will Russia after Putin necessarily collapse? Or will Putin’s successor turn to the West with a plea for peace and engage the country in reforms and modernization? History can still go either way. But by creating a huge police force to repel popular discontent, accumulating vast financial reserves to escape sanctions, and modifying the Russian constitution so the ruler can indefinitely remain in power, Putin has already laid the groundwork for whoever happens to be his successor to persevere in the current course of aggression – a course where the aggressor possesses the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons