A COVID-19 na população portuguesa : uma análise de riscos competitivos

Trabalho de Projeto de Mestrado, Bioestatística, 2022, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de CiênciasCOVID-19 is a contagious respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which has sparked a pandemic that will last into 2020 and 2021. Identifying decisive risk factors is critical to minimizing the risk of adverse events, especially death. This study aimed to perform a survival analysis of Portuguese COVID-19-positive individuals regis tered in Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiol ˆ ogica (SINAVE) using a competing risk model, with ´ the aim of analyzing the factors associated with the occurrence of death. The dependent variable is the time until one of the possible outcomes occurs.The events of interest considered were Death from COVID-19, Recovery and Death from another cause. The independent variables were gender, age group and Regional Health Service. For statistical analysis, several statistical inference methods were used, namely estimation of cumulative correlation function, Gray’s test, and Fine and Gray’s model. During the period covered by the study, from March 2 to December 31 in 2020, 360 914 people were registered, of whom 5 197 had COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death, 411 died from other causes, and 313 377 recovered. The median time from infection to death from COVID-19 was 11,2 days, death from other causes was 13,5 days, and recovery was 16 days. Recovery was the most likely event for all groups defined by sex, age group, and Regional Health Service. Men are estimated to have a higher risk of dying from COVID-19 after contracting the virus than from any other cause. Based on the identification of the characteristics of patients at higher risk of death, specific care strategies should be developed to prevent the evolution of the disease leading to death